Episode 2 Guns and Gold
Bo 0:29
Hey, I forgot to ask you beforehand Did you download Skype?
Brian 0:37
Shout!
Bo 0:40
That’s all right. We’ll just keep going that I won’t call you back. I was about to try and see if you were on there but no worries.
Brian 0:46
No
Bo 0:46
going from here.
Brian 0:47
Oh,
I ought to check on my thing though to see if my phone will let me do it because I had that do not disturb thing on it like when when they access my apps while I’m going like 50 miles or faster.
Bo 0:58
Oh, right. Yeah, you’d probably have to call me that at that point. Before you started.
Brian 1:03
Yeah.
Bo 1:04
Yeah.
That’s a good point. I wonder how it would handle the Skype. I have no idea. I don’t drive fancy cars. So I have no idea.
Brian 1:16
I think my phone that does that.
Bo 1:17
Middle Class Light over here.
Brian 1:20
Yeah. And my super expensive car.
Bo 1:27
That’s right.
Brian 1:29
It wasn’t?
Bo 1:30
Yeah, yeah. No, I’m just kidding.
And I like how you were like, it’s probably the worst
Bluetooth speakerphone system there is. Just to be able to say what they have it, right?
Brian 1:44
Oh, yeah. No, it’s literally there’s the technology and these cars are constantly rated the lowest, but the build quality is towards the top end. So as long as reliable, I don’t care.
Bo 1:56
Oh, yeah, for sure. I mean, what you care about is the drive train, right? Like, yeah. Yeah. That’s right. Um, yeah, I was gonna ask you about this article about the MMR vaccine, saying that, oh, yeah, could protect against the worst symptoms of COVID-19. Which seems weird.
Brian 2:19
Yeah, so any live vaccine, like, live attenuated, so they take the virus, or the bacteria or whatever it is, and they, you know, breed it in the lab until it’s, you know, becomes super low virulence, you know, little to no symptoms, but still reproduce in your body. And any vaccine that does that will activate your innate immune system, right? So, I’m not an immunologist, but like, they’re different killer cells, stuff that eats anything, you know, that then presents it to your adaptive immune system to then create, you know, adaptive immune states directly.
responding to that, you know,
Bo 3:01
Oh, interesting.
Okay, so what you’re saying is essentially,
you know, working out ahead of time, it’s like ramping up its munitions against
Brian 3:17
exactly,
Bo 3:18
even though it’s a different virus. Interesting.
Brian 3:21
Yeah. So I’d say you know, if you did a live flu vaccine might be just as effective as the MMR Yeah, I mean, anything like that that because you’re you know, your body’s constantly getting challenged the biggest part of your innate immune system is your skin right? It keeps everything out and there’s you know, enzymes on your skin that destroy bacteria and all sorts stuff like that, but if you can get something in you that’s kind of getting a really low level infection, your innate on the cells that make up your innate response will kind of fire up and you know, will protect you against no matter anything that’s coming into your body.
Bo 3:58
Yeah, so I mean, essentially it’s eat dirt and you’ll be healthier.
Brian 4:03
Yeah, no, yeah, exactly. It’s just like the you know, Amish Yeah,
Haha. Don’t eat too much dirt there’s anthrax in there. Okay.
But yeah, like the Hutterite and Amish communities that you know, lower autoimmune like asthmas and psoriasis and stuff like that. And I think it’s because they, you know, actually interact with the environment on a regular basis. Instead of our little sterile homes. They repeat the everyday know from a sterile office to a sterile home and once a week, we’re outside.
Bo 4:37
Yeah, I think you told me at some point that a large reason for a lot of our problems like like what you listed those kind of problems didn’t come about until the mass adoption of the dishwasher.
Brian 4:51
Oh, yeah. psoriasis. Yeah, that was a really crazy study for children. So psoriasis in children specifically,
Bo 4:58
Really?
Brian 4:59
Yeah. So you’re like sanitizing your dishes too well.
Bo 5:02
No way.
Brian 5:04
Yeah. It was a large observational study, but it’s still it was adequately powered to detect the difference they found.
Bo 5:13
Interesting. Yeah, so this was this was odd. They’re like, I don’t know enough about the MMR vaccine vaccination. And maybe it said in the article, but it’s been the entire day since I’ve read it.
Brian 5:28
Oh, yeah.
Bo 5:31
Well, I was gonna ask.
Brian 5:31
Measles Mumps and Rubella.
Bo 5:33
Yeah, don’t we? Don’t we get that when we’re young? Like as a kid? And then maybe there’s a booster at some point?
Brian 5:41
yeah. So people get a babysitter more so than other people. You know, most your primary care physicians primary asset 30 year old like, Hey, here’s a provision for this. But yeah, it’s not I mean, auto look at the USPS TF to the United States preventive care Task Force thing, I don’t think it’s on the recommended, I could be wrong. But you know, like you get your tetanus booster every 10 years. And then depending on your age, you get different, you know, vaccinations like once you hate to keep it to get the Prevnar 13, for pneumonia and stuff like that. But I get to the MMWR, that’s the CDC thing, I always mix it up MMR vaccine is, you know, doesn’t cause autism is super safe, so, it would be nice if it was somehow related to preventing servere COVID outcomes and might be furthered, and why children maybe aren’t being nice of your outcome. You know, that was that’s pure speculation, no data to back that up. But well, it isn’t that
you get it in childhood.
Bo 6:46
Wouldn’t you be able to tell that? Because the whole world isn’t vaccinated with MMR right? So
Brian 6:54
You’d hope but no, like, I guess, so ever since that the whole autism thing, like we, you know, dropped on a lot of, you know, I think MMR had nearly 90% uptake, and it took a pretty heavy hit over the last decade or so, as far as the number of people who get it.
Bo 7:14
Right.
Well, I mean, I could assume, let’s assume that all Americans get it as children. Could you assume that every, you know, third world country was would be the same way? Would you be able to see if this were something that was seemed to be protecting children? Would you just be able to know that, from the outset, like, that? Seems like more kids in third world countries are having more severe symptoms or outcomes?
Brian 7:43
Oh, and there’s low income countries, they don’t have the infrastructure to collect data the way we do. So making the direct comparison, unless you go there to do the study and bring the resources needed. That makes sense, it’s really hard to make those comparisons.
Bo 7:55
Okay. That does make sense. But even if you did to developed countries that for collecting data,
I mean,
compared to developed countries that, you know, have different rates of vaccination for MMR, wouldn’t you be able to like, have that data, make that comparison.
Brian 8:15
So
you can kind of retrospectively like that it would be registered states have a lot of risk of bias, and
you know, you don’t account for it.
Bo 8:27
You can cherry pick the countries you want to compare and then
make your data.
Brian 8:30
Well, yeah, that that, yeah, that would be a big No, no, but even if you systematically look at all of them, right? They’re your cultural and societal things that you can’t really control for and that kind of thing.
Bo 8:41
Okay.
Yeah, this is saying that it looks like it’s recommended once in children, they get two doses. So this is a from the CDC site, it was the first result when I googled it. But the second dose first, from 12 to 15 months of age, and the second dose is 4-6 years of age, then children can receive the second dose earlier as long as it is at least 28 days after the first dose. And then students at post high school education institutions who do not have presumptive evidence of immunity, I don’t know what that means, like, how would you determine that?
Brian 9:28
And then either you’ve already been infected with measles mumps or rubella or you had at least one of the shots or you know, in the vaccines, I mean, like, those are all immunizing infections, right? Or measles is, you know, I don’t know about rubella. But measles and mumps are kind of like chickenpox. You’re more or less good.
Bo 9:48
Right. Well, isn’t the chicken pox? The situation with that, that that stays with you? Right? You’re just sort of uh,
Brian 9:55
Oh, yeah, no, it didn’t chills out in your
like, I’m not gonna… Your… in your central nervous system. That’s where you get shingles from that’s why it’s so insanely painful.
Bo 10:07
Oh, wow.
But yeah, that’s what that’s the same virus virus that you never get rid of if once you have, once you have chickenpox as a kid, it could re-manifest I guess,
Brian 10:18
I am of the thought that a lot of viral infections, you’re never really truly rid of them. You know that.
Bo 10:27
That’s true of a lot of viruses. I mean, like,
Brian 10:30
a lot of viruses.
Bo 10:32
Okay, that makes sense, like herpes or
whatever other viruses like that would stick ar– I guess you’re saying most of them, anything you get that’s viral? We’ll
Brian 10:43
Anything you get. Yeah.
Bo 10:45
Interesting.
But it just it your body gets ahead of it and keeps it under control. So you aren’t symptomatic or having problems with from it. Is that what you mean?
Brian 10:54
Exactly.
Bo 10:55
Cool.
Brian 10:56
Yeah yeah yeah.
Bo 10:57
This is like recommending international travelers have it. Women of childbearing age… Who should not get it….
People.
I don’t want to read through this list, but it’s people with like, other conditions, and I guess if your immune compromised, but
Brian 11:19
yeah, so you don’t give a live vaccine to someone who’s immune compromised, because they might get a really severe case of the disease even though it’s a super,
Bo
that makes sense.
Brian
Reduced virulence strain.
Bo 11:30
Right. Yeah, just seems like this. Is it unsafe to revaccinate? Like,
Brian 11:39
Oh, no.
Bo 11:39
So it seems like to me, you could just try this in a population.
Brian 11:45
Haha. That’s more or less with a PI so the Primary Investigator for the study that’s running this. Like he’s quoted as saying, like, don’t think it’ll hurt anybody? So we’re gonna see. I mean, it’s more or less the logic of it. Following
Bo 11:59
in the article, you mean
Brian 12:01
yeah yeah, yeah,
Bo 12:02
the American Society
for microbiology.
Yeah.
Brian 12:04
Yeah. We’re going to press releases they do not like a peer-reviewed anything.
Bo 12:10
Okay.
Huh. Okay. Well, I mean, it almost makes me want to see about getting a vaccine, right, like, go get a MMR. I’m not recommending this to anybody. It’s just I had that thought, like, should I just go did it, go get it? And then if I do get sick it might alleviate
symptoms?
Brian 12:31
Yeah, you might not be ventilated or die, which would be a good thing.
Bo 12:35
Well, you know,
it’s likely that that would be true for my age group. And yeah, can physical condition anyway. But yeah, especially people. I mean, like my parents, I mean, you would think like, older people, it’s been so long since they’ve had those vaccine, you know, if they if they I’m sure they had them
Brian 12:57
They probably never got them. Oh, yeah. They probably never got them. Yeah,
Bo 13:01
It’s like they’re relying on herd immunity, essentially, it’s just the disease isn’t around. So
Brian 13:07
Exactly, or they had children.
Bo 13:10
That makes sense, then that that would be Yeah, that’s right. They may have had it as children. But that makes sense. It seems so logical that I just think this is funny that this article is dated from June 19th. And it’s now August 6, or whatever.
Brian 13:27
Yeah,
Bo 13:28
I mean,
you may have seen it a while ago, but no one’s talking about this that I know of,
Brian 13:33
Oh, no, this is like totally happenstance, googling other things for other research I stumbled across. So like duh, if you do a live vaccine, that reproduces in the body, the innate immune system fires up for a while. I’m curious to see how long the window prediction would be. But I have heard anecdotally about nurses up in New York and New Jersey around there were getting this vaccine.
Bo 14:05
Oh, really?
Brian 14:06
Yeah. It’s kind of like, who knows, you know, I get a little bit of, you know, crossing the fingers. Like, it’s like, you know, I think that the complication rate for that vaccine is like, one is like 1.3 million for a severe
Bo 14:22
Complication of some sort. Yeah.
Brian 14:24
Yeah, exactly. So I mean, that’s extremely low risk. Now, there’s other Yeah, so yeah, there’s always there’s, you know, there is no free lunch. There’s always gonna be a risk you gotta hit that epuipoise whether the risk is worth it or not.
Bo 14:38
Right.
Very cool. That’s that’s pretty good news. I would say. We’ll see what comes of it, if anything. You know.
Brian 14:47
Yeah. Hopefully the trial will be done here in the next couple months, I think is what the article is saying or starting your next several months. I can’t remember now.
Bo 14:55
Yeah, so many of these schools.
Like a lot of So a lot of schools are either doing the virtual school, or they do some combination, I guess it’s I don’t know of any school, that’s like we’re only opening with no option to do virtual, because I think that’s almost like a legal. Like, we don’t want to get sued, we want to give people the option, I would assume.
You think that would be the case?
Brian 15:29
I don’t know, Jackson city pretty much came out and said, We don’t think parents are capable of teaching our standards. And they only offered in person and our friends’ kids go there. And CNN, MSNBC, you know, Fox News, all those people like a whole bunch of national news, people were there on the first day at the parents how they felt about it.
Bo 15:54
Right.
Brian 15:56
But I that the only public school I know of that’s doing
Bo 16:01
Well, I know, on the standpoint of like, even a private school, like a lot of private schools are the they’re under pressure of like, hey, if we go virtual, are we are we showing enough value for the tuition that’s being paid? And, you know, I would tend to I mean, I don’t know. But you would think that you would want a tuition break if your kids are having to stay home and like, do the do the Virtual Learning thing. But so they’re pressured financially, to try and go back in person. But
they,
it’s it’s like,
I totally lost my train of thought.
Brian 16:50
Haha. Well, yes, it’s a conflict of interest. Right. So I mean, they they don’t make money unless do come through the door, whereas public schools, their funding is based on tax collection of property that, you know,
that probably isn’t going to change drastically.
I don’t know. It’s, it’s interesting that it’s something that like, is not been covered at all by our local media. And this is that we’ve heard all about our county schools, and what they’re going to do, but nothing. And then like, well, the private schools in that same County are doing this.
Bo 17:27
Yeah,
Yeah, yeah, I know.
And the private school, a friend of my works for he is they are actually issuing masks. Masks are going to be mandatory. And then optionally, they’re issuing face shields. And then he can wear I mean, he will be wearing a mask, he could choose to also wear a face shield. But he’s talking about like, some of his students can opt to do virtual. So he’s having to teach to virtual kids, as well as this is middle school level. Teach the virtual kids and to kids in-person that are socially distanced. So a lot of space between desks in the room in the classroom. But I don’t know how many times I’ve been at a store trying to talk to someone that works at the store and they can’t understand me through the mask.
Brian 18:27
Haha. Yeah.
Bo 18:28
It’s like, I can’t imagine without being micro like having a microphone or maybe a clear, some kind of clear mask. One of the schools that his kids are going to go to has what they called a humanity. What did he call it? I’m gonna look it up. It’s like a human shield. No, it’s like, it’s called humanity shield. And it’s a it’s a It looks like a beekeepers. It’s a face shield. That looks like a beekeepers helmet. And it’s this company in Alaska, it looks like that makes them but anyway, it’s there’s no need to wear a mask at that point because it’s a cloth around the neck and face shield up top. So it in you know, in theory, they bought one of these for all of the kids so you can at least look at facial cues and read smiles and read lips, you know?
Brian 19:33
Yeah. I’m not even hard of hearing. I didn’t realize how Reliant I was on lip reading. I know understand.
Bo 19:41
I know!
Brian 19:42
other people.
Bo 19:43
It’s so true. You don’t…
Brian 19:44
Yeah. They did a really quick study about this, right? So they had a faculty do an experiment and different size rooms on the university. And almost no one could hear anyone and they’re like in for this softer spoken people or female people who couldn’t protect their voice properly. It was like, impossible. Unless you like approached it and got like, right up on top of them to hear understand what they were saying. So I, I yeah, I’m not looking forward to it, because I had to teach my class three different ways. Asynchronous, Online, and Live.
Bo 20:22
That’s true. You’re Yeah, yeah, I forgot. Yeah. Yeah, I, I wonder if you should look at one of these they look like they would be. I don’t know, might be something that would could be useful to you. Because of what you’re talking about, like not having to well, and I also said to him, maybe you could, he could just mic himself. And so then it just projects, what he’s saying. So even though you can’t read the lips, it’s like, no one, no one’s gonna misunderstand him as easily. If you’re muffled through a mask, it’s a little louder muffled that but you can still understand it maybe a little better.
Brian 21:01
Increase the volume.
Bo 21:03
Yeah.
Brian 21:03
Yeah. It’s gonna be interesting. I’m also curious to see how well the capturing software does. Because I’m going to you know, live streaming if you had to caption it for students.
Bo 21:16
Oh, well, it’ll do that on the fly.
Brian 21:18
Yeah.
Bo 21:19
Why can’t you?
If you need closed caption, why can’t you do the asynchronous online and have it closed captioned?
Brian 21:28
Oh, I mean, it’s the same system. Right? Oh, okay. Wait, it did not close caption on the fly it closed captions through an automated process. Right?
Bo 21:39
Yeah, but usually, that’s highly inaccurate.
Brian 21:43
So ours is like, you know, going to, you know, pronounce your words and don’t enunciate it. I think, though, all the videos I’ve done, I’ve hit like a 96 estimated accuracy. Like they’re like, they know, we screwed up 4% of the time, but like, that’s plenty good for me, because I might write the whole script out.
Bo 22:05
That’s interesting.
Okay, yeah. Well, that makes sense. Yeah, hopefully, that’ll I think if you’re miked close enough, you know, microphone does it can’t tell whether your face is covered or not as long as it’s as long as you’re projecting through it.
Brian 22:21
Exactly.
Bo 22:22
So.
Yeah, that’s great. Yeah, let’s, uh, let’s switch gears and talk about the economy. Like I know that all this is kind of related. But I, I was wanting to talk to you last time about the the Fed, and I’m trying to get access to that article. Now that essentially the Fed it sounds like they’re trying to ramp up. Inflation, they’re actually chasing inflation, they want to they want to cause inflation and see it happen. But it sounds like that sounds so scary to me. Because it sounds like like, hey, I want I want this fire of just this certain size, but I’m going to use the biggest, baddest, like, flame thrower I could find. And, and start this little fire. You know what I mean? Like,
Brian 23:15
yeah, and on dry ground.
Bo 23:17
And really, my only weapon is the flame thrower. I cannot. I cannot use the water hose, you know?
Brian 23:25
Yeah. No, yeah. My, my dad was super paranoid about this. And I guess he was rightfully justified to be. He’s like, “oh, hyperinflation is coming.” And I’m like, “Oh, great. Thanks, Dad.”
Bo 23:37
Yeah, I mean, I don’t know. Is hyperinflation
really gonna be like, certain? Is that something that’s
Brian 23:44
Oh, no, he’s just, he’s, I mean, well, that’s his prediction.
Unknown Speaker 23:49
Yeah, I know, I got it. But I’m just meaning from the standpoint of like,
Bo 23:55
level headed
you know, analysis, I guess is what I’m looking for. Like, it seems to me that it would be a risk and something that hopefully they are at least accounting for. Right. Like, they’re thinking about that.
Brian 24:13
Well, the thing that gets me right is like, yeah, his wages have barely raised, you know, risen fast enough to keep up with inflation as it is. Sure. Wow, how is this going to, you know, how our wages all of a sudden going to magically pick up the pace to keep up like, I don’t know, all I can see is cost of living going up and wages not increasing accordingly and being making everything much worse than even a 33% reduction in GDP. That I think was estimated that we’re currently in right now, which seems kind of dire in the first place, right?
Bo 24:50
Yeah. This guy Peter Boockvar, the chief Chief Investment Officer at the Bleakley Advisor Group at the bottom very bottom of the article he’s quoted as “It doesn’t make any economic sense whatsoever. The consumer is very fragile right now, the last thing we should be shooting for is higher cost of living. So that’s exactly what you’re saying.
Brian 25:11
Oh, yeah. Okay, there we go.
Bo 25:12
So I just think that I mean, I get what they’re trying to do is inject confidence, say, Hey, we’re gonna do everything in our power to keep things going, you can count on interest rates staying low, and we’re not going to change, we’re not gonna raise interest rates until we see at least their target as at least 2%. inflation. Let’s see. Economists point to a move to average inflation targeting in which the, in which inflation above the central bank’s usual 2% target would be tolerated and even desired. So I think they’re saying between two to 4%. Inflation is what they’re aiming for. I’m glossing over this kind of fast. So I don’t know if I Yeah, exactly. Right. Yeah. Welcome inflation range of up of 2 to 4%. But see, the other thing is, last time, we had 2, 3, 4 percent inflation, I don’t really know when it was as high as 4%. But I do remember days when you were getting 4% or more in a savings account, which is not actually that much. But, you know, you’re beating inflation and your savings account right now. It’s like, even though inflation is really low, you’re still losing money. saving it. I know that stimulates the economy but still. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Like an even in a high yield savings account. What are they still under a 1%? Now? Maybe you can find one slightly over one? I don’t know. I haven’t checked lately, but yeah, I don’t know. Yeah, I think I feel like my… go ahead.
Brian 26:51
I was just saying holding cash is going to stop is going to make absolutely zero sense. Right. So I mean, you can’t save it. It’s gonna, you know, that dollars in value less and less each day. And I so I think about this in terms of, like, perception of the dollars worth too, you know, we’ve had what, the one bailout? And you know, I guess they’re in the works of getting another bailout, right. So it’s gonna be really interesting to see. Do people stop valuing the dollar less just on a day to day?
Bo 27:23
You mean, do they start valuing it less? Like, is it? Yeah, I heard I heard a guy say once. If you have, say there are $100 in the whole world, and you own $1. And then all of a sudden, somebody prints another hundred dollars and distributes them around the world. You still have $1.
Brian 27:47
Yeah, yeah. It’s it halves the value, right?
Bo 27:50
Yeah. So it’s like, if unless that, I mean, that’s not a perfect analogy, but it still helps you conceptualize pumping what was it? 2 trillion last time? I don’t even know the number is so big. But
Brian 28:07
Yeah, this one was they went the Democrats wanted 4 trillion, the republicans went to 2 trillion. And they’re somewhere like the 3.5 trillion, I think was the last thing I heard.
Bo 28:15
Yeah, it’ll probably end up somewhere in the middle of that. And, yeah, and granted, like there are a lot of people without work and are really suffering. So I can see it just sometimes I’m like, it doesn’t seem fair to just give everybody money. Because if, if you’re not in need of it, why are you Why should the US as a collective devalue all of our money more? But yeah, at the same time, the only way to be fair is to give everybody the same amount. So I don’t know there’s no good solution. But I guess what I’m trying to how I’m always thinking about things is like, what is how to how do you and you and I do… How do we take advantage of what’s happening? It’s not like we can control any of this.
Brian 28:51
I’m gonna borrow 120% equity against my house.
Bo 29:11
Haha! And then what do you do? You can’t sit on the cash invested, where are you gonna invest it? You buy another property?
Brian 29:19
You buy guns and gold!
Bo 29:22
Gold is not a good investment right now, in my opinion. It’s an all-time high. I think it’s even inflation adjusted all time high, but maybe I’m wrong. But uh,
Brian 29:33
I think you’re right about that. Yeah. There’s It was a bunch of news articles about that. Yeah. And it would not be the that was a joke. Yeah, no, I don’t know. It’s just like, I’m gonna borrow that money for 1% or 2% interest and every dollar I give back to the bank is worth half as much as the dollar aid, you know, got from them. True. So I mean, like, you know, I don’t know obviously, that’s a little hyperbole, I wouldn’t do that much, but
Bo 29:57
it definitely does. Make you think Though should you leverage yourself if you feel secure enough in your income? leverage? Yeah, you normally would. Which they, you know, hope props up the real estate market and stimulates the economy. But geez, like, I don’t know, I feel like we’re we’re babysitting all of these, like since 2008. I guess it’s just having lived through that, which is not. I vaguely remember the, the crash in 2000. Just, you know, my grandparents being upset about it and stuff. But you know, as a geez I was in high school. It didn’t really…
Brian 30:37
Oh the dot com?
Bo 30:39
Yeah. the.com Yeah. But it was like, I heard a lot about it. But I was like, Well, you know, doesn’t affect me. You know, I didn’t. I wasn’t an investor at that time. Really? I mean, I had small Yeah, money, but it wasn’t like it was something I was paying a lot of attention to. So, you know, in my I don’t know, some, I don’t like to sit here and worry so much about everything just falling apart. But at some point, you’re like, we can only put more band aids on something for so long. But even still, if you don’t do that, what? There’s still a disaster of a gaping wound. You know?
Brian 31:17
Yeah. This isn’t even like, you know, where it would be like, all of a sudden a reshuffle of wealth. It would just be a massive loss of wealth in general, right?
Bo 31:27
Yeah.
Brian 31:27
It’s not like you’re propping up some sort of industry that wrecked itself. It’s like, it’s literally the economy quit for like, two and a half weeks.
Bo 31:37
Well, longer than that in some states. I mean,
Brian 31:40
Yeah.
Bo 31:41
Yeah. It’s like. It’s tricky. It’s like. It quit but it has started back, but not to the same extent. I mean, a third of the country is in hospitality. And like, that’s still shut down, essentially. Not entirely, but restaurants aren’t making huge margins. They’re razor razor thin, and like, you know, they’re just bleeding money right now. So I don’t know. I feel for Yeah, I don’t see there isn’t I feel for people that work there. But But if But beyond that, everyone’s hurting, or a lot of people are hurting. Without being insensitive. I still think you keep buying, you know, like, take, leftover cash and keep, keep buying into the market where you can find deals. And part of me is wondering, you know, as a strategy, I feel like, I need to start being better about buying individual stocks and not not doing the index investing as heavily, maybe shift away, like, 20% into individual stocks, that I have more control over. And maybe see if I could I just feel like eventually, we’re gonna get to the point that if everybody indexed, it would just be a mess. You know, there’s some quote by
Brian 33:01
Oh, yeah.
Bo 33:01
By Bogle where he says, If everyone. Everyone indexed,
Brian 33:13
I don’t know. I’m like, 5050. Right now, I guess.
Between indexed and, you know, kind of the buying of million different things at one time and then individual.
Bo 33:23
Yeah, I’m almost virtually 100 percent. Yeah, maybe 90 95%. Indexed. And I prefer it. I like that methodology, because it takes my emotion kind of out of it. But yeah, it’ll be interesting to try and adapt. I still think. I don’t know. I, I feel like there’s gonna be a lot of opportunity. And I think, you know, we were talking about shift of wealth. It’s like, what should happen as the market should crash and then younger people should be able to take advantage of that. And, yeah, really be set years and years from now. But you have so many baby boomers that that would destroy. And then that way to end up? It’s not like, it’s not like the younger crowd. I mean, you could you could argue that the millennials, which we are millennials, Millennials are getting screwed, because we aren’t being able to take care, like the markets being propped up. So we aren’t being able to take advantage of a really good deal. But we’re also not being screwed in the sense that our parents aren’t being wiped out. And we’re having to take care of them in the general sense.
Brian 34:42
Right? Yeah. Especially the parents that aren’t. Yeah, yeah. parents that aren’t in that same situation. I mean, you know, income wise, there are a lot of people that even in retirement live paycheck to paycheck, so that would be terrible. I don’t know I personally, I Have pumped the brakes pretty hard on buying stuff lately because I still do like dividend reinvestment, but I do, I feel like we’re on this little bubble that keeps on blowing up blowing up blowing up, and I don’t see any more air to go in. And then with inflation stuff, I’m like, Okay, so my buying power is going down if there’s inflation goes in, but I feel like there’s still gonna be a huge equity loss at some point, right?
Bo 35:24
I keep, I keep going back and forth in my head about real estate like dumping more money into like REITs, because they’re really they were they were slaughtered for a little while. But I mean, industries, like there are a lot of different sectors within REITs that aren’t as destroyed. But even if, even if you’re talking like the worst of the worst, so like, and maybe this isn’t actually worst of the worst, because I haven’t analyzed it enough. But like, say you want it to invest in malls, like you chose a mall REIT. Like, on a long enough time horizon, as long as the company survives, that can be a great buy.I mean, it’s risky. But if you’re talking about an index of a bunch of different read companies that are that are collecting rent on malls, like I really think after this, I don’t know if people are really going to necessarily change like, say it goes on five years or so something kind of long.
Brian 36:28
Oh, man.
Bo 36:29
Let’s just assume, like, that’s really bad. Right? That would be a really worst case.
Brian 36:35
That would be terrible. Yeah.
Bo 36:36
Okay. Like, I do think I do think a bear market last at least that long. But let’s say all through the bear market, you’re dumping money into mall REITs? Maybe that’s a terrible plan. So do not do this. But let’s say you did 20 years beyond that five year mark, are people going to want to go to malls? I think they probably do. I don’t personally and maybe, maybe I should pay more attention to that and think about the demographics of it. Because maybe young people really aren’t doing it. But what if malls kind of become places where you go eat, and you see a movie. And it’s more of a experience venue than just, I mean, you could have places to play golf. You know, all those kinds of things in those buildings that do exist, they just kind of, they would shift their model. And so that’s, that’s a lot of ifs, right? Like, that’s not that’s not how I want to invest, because that’s more speculation. But, what sectors are hurting right now? Financial banks are hurting, but banks aren’t going anywhere. They have tons of cash on hand. Real estate is down just because of like, people not be able to move around. So that’s hurting, but then and I’m talking from the standpoint of REITs, and then also Yeah, like, if you think about personal real estate, they talk about an impending mortgage crisis. Like, I feel like in the next quarter, few quarters, we’re gonna see some deals in different things. And maybe it’s not, you know, like you said, it’s, it’s high. It seems like we’re at a peak. So I think everybody’s kind of waiting for that corner to turn. And then try and take advantage of on the way down. And just, I don’t know I just feel like if I just continue to buy even if I’m buying highs too hard to time, but if I’m buying high dollar cost average into stuff like that, that 20 years out, you’re gonna be way better off than if you just sat and tried to time the bottom, but maybe I’m wrong.
Brian 39:07
Yeah, no, I’m definitely not. I don’t think I’m trying to time it I just not putting anything extra.
Bo 39:13
Yeah, right. Now if that makes sense. Yeah, I’m, I’m actually doing the same because for, you know, I have things I’ve been buying but like one as soon as like, I’m not buying dirt and block from my retaining wall and all these extra expenses that aren’t normal. I’m gonna go back to putting extra in and I think I noticed myself through through this whole crisis that I was watching for the down days, and I’d want to buy when the market was down. And I’m like, I’m timing the market of just to kind of doing I don’t know, I’m still trying to time the market. And, like, stop doing that. Just let it like. And then I, you know, because from the beginning I told myself I wasn’t going to do that I said I was just gonna buy on Wednesdays. But somewhere some some time I had read an article, that seemed like a good statistically speaking over the, over the history. Yeah, that was like the best time. Yeah, it was Wednesdays, which kind of makes sense, because it’s like, you’re less likely to have a holiday interrupt trading. Yeah. Like, I don’t know, stuff like that. So I went with that strategy. And then like, Wednesday would roll and I’d be like, Yeah, but it’s up today. I bet it’ll be down. Let me wait and see.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai
Bo 0:04
I said I’m just gonna buy on Wednesdays, but somewhere some, some time I had read an article that seemed like a good statistically speaking over the over the history. Yeah, that was like the best time yeah it was Wednesdays, which kind of makes sense because it’s like you’re less likely to have a holiday interrupt trading. Yeah, like, I don’t know, stuff like that so I went with that strategy and then like Wednesday would roll and I’d be like, Yeah, but it’s up today. I bet it’ll be, let me wait and see.
Brian 0:34
Yeah, that’s it. That’s the, the mental trap of timing it. I just, I if it’s down and I have extra cash I’ll buy extra if not then i’ll just put in what I was planning on putting in in the first place I try to automate as much of that stuff as possible having the buy values like the buy thresholds for different things. If it doesn’t execute I’ll just go in and maually do it once a month. And that way because it’s easy to stress yourself out and like, I’m going to do a billion different things and none of them really mattered, especially when it’s such a long distance horizon for either you and I. I mean, if the world falls apart,
Bo 1:26
It is in some ways I guess what I’m more like actively not trading but we’re I’m actively investing I have a shorter time horizon, only from the standpoint of this is a non tax advantaged account so it doesn’t have to wait until I’m in my 60s. So, in that sense it’s a little. I would use it a little, little sooner maybe but I can still choose not to use it, assuming there’s not some catastrophic thing that happens.
Yeah.
Brian 1:57
Yeah. You don’t lose any money until you sell it at a loss. But it’s fun we can wrap it up.
Bo 2:08
I don’t want to keep going. If your home. So, let’s do it again.
Brian 2:12
I’ll talk to you later Bo.
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